SmallCOP mid air

It’s drama to put it bluntly. Dramatic, truly, when considering the lack of negotiations at SB85.

While the Bonn Conference (SB58) needs to set the stage for a leap in implementation at COP28, providing the basis for the world to turn their big promise of Paris, 2015, into tangible climate action, the parties are to this hour stuck discussing “means”.

Staying true to the idea of “stage setting”, the developed nations want to talk about the looks, the size, and the details of said stage. In other words, they want to determine what exactly climate action and implementation looks like. While clearly all parties have signed to build said stage, to commit to implementing real climate action, the global south wants to discuss manpower and money first. Why? Because they have been promised 100 billion USD, long overdue and sadly not in sight.

The commitment to implementing climate action from the global south depends on the means they are provided with. Without the means it’s an empty promise.

In the at times ironic setting of United Nations gatherings, this somewhat crucial discussion – we are talking about 100 billion after all – boils down to the naming of an agenda item.

In essence, clearly you can’t decide on the scale and nature of a project without knowing your budget. Means and implementation go hand in hand, it’s not one before the other. There is one problem though. When you are promised 100 billion, but they remain just that, a promise, you stop dreaming big.

You go from what is needed to what is possible and if the whole world does that, the 1.5° goal becomes impossible to reach.

Now, what does it take to turn from blaming to taming the climate crisis? Trust. Rebuilding trust. There is no way around it.

The developed countries need to sign a binding commitment to provide the promised 100 billion USD by the end of the year. Why trust them now? Well, because the south has got leverage this time.

If the developed world wants to reach their NDC’s (their climate goals) – keeping the promise they have each been elected for – they need carbon offsets from the global south. A6.4ER’s.

A6.4ER, emission reductions according to Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. Internationally tradeable mitigation outcomes that can be sold and purchased. But only if the host countries, those storing carbon in the global south, through “clean cooking stoves”, vast jungles, etc. sign off on bilateral agreements with the buyers.

The small COP’s underdog, the global south, showstoppers, insisting on discussing means for absolutely valid reasons. You’re in the right and maybe you can shift the tide. As the US pointed out “maybe look for other sources to pay the 100 billion”. Alright, let’s broaden the view. Whether on national level or even in the private sector, ESG commitments, NDC’s and NetZero pledges all build on carbon storage in the global south. Only available if the south signs off on it.

When it comes to implementation developed countries require “means” just like the south.

Offsets for developed countries, billions for the south. Conditional trust. That’s when you get the chance to start over.

Let’s set the stage for COP28, justly, because clearly, we all lack means in some way or another. And if some aren’t used to communicating their needs, or still haven’t recognized their dependency, maybe it is time for a helping hand – from the global south.